ARK plans to open-source its SpaceX Starlink models in the following months, demonstrating that satellite internet is a long-term business prospect. Because satellites de-orbit on average every five years, the first global network will likely be underutilized in the early days of recruiting users. Indeed, we believe that the net present value of cash flows in this business model would be harmful during the first eight years, discouraging most organizations from pursuing the opportunity.

According to ARK's research, if SpaceX's satellite business survives the first constellation launch and user ramp, it could generate more than $20 billion in annual cash flow on a constellation that costs about $10 billion to launch because replacement satellites would launch at much higher utilization rates. If our assumptions are accurate, Starlink will buy a terrestrial internet provider and reduce latency by routing internet traffic, giving the company a competitive advantage.